Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Wisconsin Primary Musings

We're back in the deep freeze again tonight, with temperatures forecast to go down to -5 to -10 degrees (F), with windchills approaching the -20 to -30 range. Ah, February in Iowa ... nothing like it (unless you're my buddy NDD in ND who's reporting even nastier cold, so he gets the bragging rights), although that's a dubious distinction at best!

Anyway ...

Political junkie that I am, of course I was glued to MSNBC tonight for their coverage of the Wisconsin primary. Not just because I'm intensely engaged in this nomination battle (I now have a designated 'horse in this race'), but because I spent eight years of my life in graduate school in one of our finest upper midwest deep freeze states. The people of Wisconsin are great folks ... typical friendly hard-working Upper Midwesterners who are generally open-minded and trending even more progressive in recent years. (However, let's not forget it's the home state of both 'Fighting Bob' LaFollette, the legendary early 20th century Progressive, but also one of the most ignominious Senators of the 20th century, the loathsome Joe McCarthy. As an aside, one of my goals in life is to make a pilgrimage to his grave and piss copiously on it. I know, that's a bit disrespectful, but that's a minor punishment for the damage he inflicted on this country in the 1950's.)

As it stands as of this writing, with 97% of precincts reporting, Obama leads Clinton with a 17% margin ... 58% to 41%. Yes, it's a clearly defined win, but I'd go a bit further and even say that Obama handed Clinton her ass tonight. Now, you might object by saying 'Oh it was just 17%, that's no blowout, but it is a win,' which is what I expect will soon be the spin from the Clinton campaign (just like that pronouncement about 'insignificant states' last week). No, I'm not basing my judgment on the hard numbers of primary results reported alone, because when you look at the internals of the exit polls, some remarkable numbers begin to emerge.

I know exit polls are much maligned by many, but they do provide some valuable indicators about the candidates if you take the time to read the internals and look at the numbers. I just spent some time looking at the internals that MSNBC has so kindly provided. If you take the time to work through them all, you can only conclude that Obama clearly has the edge in broad appeal among this year's electorate. If we can even dare say that the people have spoken this year, it's clear that they're shouting OBAMA! Granted, I've had my doubts about him all along, but at this point in the race, I still feel he's the clear choice among Democrats. We need to win this year. Otherwise, I fear our fragile 'Democracy' is doomed with all the erosion of basic rights and constitutional violations perpetrated by the Cheney/Shrub administration. I've felt for several years that a Clinton nomination was the best way for the ReSkunklicans to steal another election, and frankly, I'm having none of it.

A couple of side notes from Obama's speech tonight:
He promises to close Guantánamo.
He promises to restore Habeus Corpus.

That's good enough for me.

Ok, about those internals ...
(Overall percentage of voters/Clinton/Obama/"Uninstructed")
Obama is split 50-50 among women.
Male4231670
Female5850500
Obama takes the White Male vote 63% to 34%
White men3734630
White women5052470
Black men4---
Black women4---
Latino men2---
Latino women2---
All other races1---
Obama takes the overall White vote 54% to 45%
White8745540
Black88910
Hispanic / Latino4---
Asian1---
Other0---
(No surprise) Obama takes the black vote 91% to 8%

Clinton takes the over 65 vote handily 58% to 41%, but that hardly seems like a surprise to me. Maybe her new ads need to emphasize the 'blue hairs for Hillary!' stat?
18-24926731
25-2972666-
30-39123763-
40-492139610
50-643144550
65 or over205841-
In all income brackets from $15,000 to 150,000, Obama takes them all handily.
Under $15,0007---
$15,000 - $29,999124652-
$30,000 - $49,999214456-
$50,000 - $74,999254257-
$75,000 - $99,9991534641
$100,000 - $149,999133565-
$150,000 - $199,9994---
$200,000 or more3---

In all education brackets, Obama again takes them all.
Did not complete high school4---
High school graduate2447510
Some college or associate degree314060-
College graduate2341590
Postgraduate study1936610
Among College Non-College educated, Obama also wins hands down.
No college degree5843560
College graduate4239600

With regard to political leanings, Obama also wins the day. Pay particular attention to those who self-identify themselves as 'Somewhat Conservative':
Very liberal1640560
Somewhat liberal3042560
Moderate4041580
Somewhat conservative113862-
Very conservative3---
Only with regard to the Catholic vote does Obama split even with Clinton.
Protestant234159-
Catholic3950500
Mormon / LDS0---
Other Christian183366-
Jewish1---
Muslim0---
Something else7---
None1236610
And in the issues cited by voters as most important, Obama clearly bitch slaps Clinton.
The economy4541570
The war in Iraq2639600
Health care264654-
As for the "Change" theme, Obama clearly has the upper hand (is this a surprise to anyone?)
Can bring about needed change5422770
Cares about people like me164355-
Has the right experience22955-
Has the best chance to win in November7---

There's a lot more interesting results in these internals, but these were some of the demographics I found the most revealing in the Wisconsin primary. When you get down to the stats on who voted for whom, the results are pretty apparent, so I'll just skip those. Follow the link if you're really interested.

My conclusion about the Wisconsin primary? For a white bread upper Midwest state, these results are pretty impressive. If Obama's momentum keeps winning the day, I'm cautiously optimistic we have a historic winner on our hands. I guess we'll get a better idea come March 4, particularly in Ohio and (le maudit!) Texas.

I, for one, am hoping that dynastic politics loses big time this year. I used to greatly admire the Clintons, but this campaign has brought out their worst tendencies. Their time is past. Face up to it Bill and Hillary. Either go out gracefully and with a little bit of class or be consigned to the lake of fire and go down in flames!

7 comments:

Man Eegee said...

Milwaukee is in my top five favorite cities, always had a great time whenever I visited there. Of course, it would be great if it had my weather at this time of year ;)

I can't wait for this to be all over, my nerves can't take any more waiting.

Iowa Victory Gardener said...

Hey Manny, nice to see you around! I suspect you've been swamped with work/life 'stuff' as I have been the past few months? I was over at your place the other night but it was late and I was falling asleep, lol. Not the best time to drop by eh?

Of course I'm partial to Madison, but I used to like to go to MKW to eat at a great Slovenian place called 3 Brothers. Ever hear of it? Great stuff and they were the only place you could get BIP beer at the time. Was always fun ordering that, hehe. (It's pronounced 'beep') Gimme another BIP!

Man Eegee said...

yeah, life's been insane; but I still try to include debauchery here and there to keep from getting bored ;)

Haven't heard of 3 Brothers, but love trying any place that doesn't involve hard pre-packaged taco shells.

mmmmmm beer. I want Sprecher's Root Beer now. As in Now now. heh

olivia said...

Hi IVG, hi Manny.

IVG, I love your use of the tables ... :) They look great. And may I say, after a day spent fack-checking, your writing is such a pleasure to read. Thank you , thank you, thank you. :)

olivia said...

That would be:

fact-checking ...

heh

off to bed now ...

:)

dada said...

one more time: blogger and l have issues.

ah well,better late than never…and not to meaning to pick a nit, butmandate, in terms of a political victory, has of late come to mean anything over 10%.

she got rolled.

the K[c]ling[t]on's are going to make this ugly, and they, the dlc, and all the bush/blue dogs need to be sent a mandate…get with the program or get out of the way.

the revolution may yet be televised.

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